Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Wednesday forecast for December 29, 2010

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Today: Heavy rain and isolated showers today late afternoon; High of 61; winds south between 10 to 15mph

Tonight: Heavy showers with isolated thunderstorms; Low of 53; winds southeast at 10 to 15mph


~Jackson, MS

Currently
Slightly warmer temperatures this morning as temperatures were already in the mid 40s by 8:00a.m. Lately as you've been waking up for work during that time, temperatures are usually still in the 30s. That must mean a sign of things to come. Yes, we do have some changes today with warmer temperatures but it will be overshadowed with mostly cloudy conditions today with heavy rain showers later this evening.

What's Happening Atmospherically
Right now on satellite imagery, we have a blanket of stratus clouds covering half of MS with a few breaks in it, so that it's not completely overcast. We should see the whole state covered with this large stratus deck of clouds as a rain system approaches. We are also getting these clouds due to the existing high pressure here moving further off to the east and bringing in some return flow. So as this high pressure begins to move off further east and weakens, we will see this rain system helped by a warm front make its way through today. As this warm front passes through, it will extend north allowing for widespread rain.
Before we get to this rain today, this warm front will allow for temperatures to be warmer today getting into the lower 60s for highs. If you need to do any errands or just want to enjoy outdoors, this morning and afternoon will be the best times before showers began. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms will begin in the late afternoon and evening hours. Rain totals are expected to be between three quarters and an inch an one quarter. We will have some elements such as elevated CAPE level, strong surge in warm moisture, and others to aid in the formation of isolated thunderstorms. So, you will probably here a rumbling or two if not more. I am expecting showers to last all throughout tonight and into earlier Thursday morning.

Thursday's outlook
Thursday looks like a complete washout as showers still continue over from Wednesday. For those of you who work morning shifts, be sure to have your umbrella in hand as you step out of your house to attend work. Most of your heavy showers will be mostly gone by Thursday morning, but we will still have those light showers that will continue until the late afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. Although Thursday will be highlighted by rain, our warmest temperatures yet this week will be on hand making conditions feel like spring-time. Highs are going to be around 70s degree! Spring-time indeed as this passing warm front will enable highs tomorrow to be very unseasonable-like.

New Year's Forecast
I am still watching potential for severe weather for New Year's Eve. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk for the area. Models shows a strong cold front system and along with that elements here that can aid in the make-up for severe weather such as high dewpoints, elevated CAPE values, instablity, southeast flow, and some shear. If all these elements and more come together at higher values then we could possibly have something. Right now though, we only have slight risk but please tune in into your local weather stations and here for further updates. Even without the severe weather, we still will have rain in the forecast and this will certainly impact festivities for New Year's Eve.

Be sure to drop back in tomorrow as I continue to feel you in about the potential for severe weather for Friday and also I will post different activities that will be going on for New Year's Eve. So, please be sure to come back tomorrow for your Face of the Sky forecast. You don't want to miss it! God Bless!

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